Company: Mercor
Employment Type: Project-Based / Remote / WFH
Application Method:
Apply job via referral link:
https://work.mercor.com/jobs/list_AAABmpfO0lNYxW5TvBZF8Jms?referralCode=771e9026-c486-4610-82ae-7bb54f341df5&utm_source=referral&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=job_referral

About Mercor

Mercor is a talent marketplace connecting top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations.
Backed by investors such as Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey, Mercor enables global professionals across domains to contribute to cutting-edge AI projects.

1. Role Overview

The client's current peak-sales forecasting framework generates strong numerical outputs and narratives - however, real-world forecast accountability is required. We are seeking a senior commercial / forecasting specialist with experience owning forecasts used to drive business development, portfolio strategy, or investment decisions.

You will provide expert judgment, define structural checks, and encode forecasting heuristics used by seasoned industry leaders.

Key responsibilities include:

• Writing "golden" peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs and standard prompts
• Defining structural checks, scenario logic, and sanity bands for automated forecast evaluations
• Making explicit the heuristics and base-rate assumptions used by experienced forecasters
• Distinguishing realistic models from speculative ones through industry-grade reasoning

This role is ideal for highly experienced biotech/pharma forecasting professionals or senior investment-side analysts.

2. Key Responsibilities

• Produce benchmark-quality, patient-based peak-sales forecasts
• Build revenue curves and concise narratives (key drivers + downside risks)
• Define forecasting rubrics with scoring thresholds and market-structure realism checks
• Document reasoning behind TPP assumptions, penetration, pricing, ramp curves, and LOE logic
• Critique optimistic or inflated bottoms-up models and propose realistic adjustments
• Provide a know-how layer explaining forecasting heuristics and real-world anchoring

3. Ideal Qualifications

Industry Commercial Forecaster Profile

• Director / Sr. Director / VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights
• Built and defended peak-sales models for portfolio, BD, or investment use cases
• Experienced with pre-launch → post-launch forecast cycles across multiple drugs
• Strong command of patient-based market modeling (eligible pool → penetration → pricing → ramp → LOE)
• Experience preparing governance-ready peak-sales models (launch committees, investor boards)

Market / VC / Buy-Side Analyst Profile

• Senior biotech equity analyst, VC incubation lead, BD leader, or company creation specialist
• Built patient-level and revenue models used for investment diligence or asset valuation
• Able to identify optimistic assumptions and critique poor analog selections
• Experience communicating forecast reasoning to investors or decision-makers

Experience Level

• 10-15 years in biotech/pharma forecasting, investment, or commercial strategy roles.
• Experience spanning pre-launch forecasts → post-launch actuals for multiple assets.
• Strong comfort with market modeling logic (TPP inputs → eligible pool → penetration → price/net → ramp + LOE).
• Evidence of post-hoc learning - can articulate where real-world results diverged from base-case assumptions.

4. Application Process

1. Submit your resume via the referral application link
2. You may be asked to complete a short qualification task
3. Successful applicants will be contacted with next steps within a few days

Apply here:

https://work.mercor.com/jobs/list_AAABmpfO0lNYxW5TvBZF8Jms?referralCode=771e9026-c486-4610-82ae-7bb54f341df5&utm_source=referral&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=job_referral

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